DIWAN

Studies & Intelligence

Intelligence with context. Foresight that shapes decisions. The DIWAN register publishes commissioned studies, briefings, and market intelligence across sectors and jurisdictions.

Briefings room Membership

StreamsAll Trade & Capital 60 Law & Regulation 26 Country Files 200 Demand & Buyers 40 Platforms & Growth 169 Brand & Positioning 3 Commodities 27 Business 54 Technology 179 Cyber Security 3

GeographyAll

United Arab Emirates 23

Antigua and Barbuda 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

Brazil 1

British Virgin Islands 1

Central African Republic 1

Hong Kong SAR, China 1

Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 1

Micronesia, Fed. Sts. 1

Northern Mariana Islands 1

Sao Tome and Principe 1

Senegal 1

Seychelles 1

Sierra Leone 1

Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 1

St. Kitts and Nevis 1

St. Lucia 1

St. Martin (French part) 1

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1

Sudan 1

Suriname 1

Sweden 1

Syrian Arab Republic 1

Trinidad and Tobago 1

Tunisia 1

Turkey 1

Turks and Caicos Islands 1

Virgin Islands (U.S.) 1

West Bank and Gaza 1

Yemen, Rep. 1

Country Files

11 of 218 items

Photo · Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-684Feasibility

FORFAIT · 27 OCT 2026

Arable land but import-dependent food: Tonga

Tonga imports roughly 36 times more than it exports, food makes up about 30% of its merchandise import bill, and half of its farmland lies fallow. The opening is a small, cyclone-hardened aggregation, cold-chain and processing hub on Tongatapu that turns surplus root crops, fish and horticulture into products that displace frozen imports, financed with grants and equity rather than new sovereign debt.

Tonga (population about 104,000) has fertile land, a farming culture in which most households grow food, and established export niches in root crops and kava. Yet its merchandise trade is profoundly lopsided: in the first quarter of 2026 the kingdom imported T$190.8 million of goods and exported T$5.3 million. Food accounts for about 29.9% of merchandise imports, imported fatty meats have been linked to some of the world's highest obesity rates, and the 2015 agricultural census found half of agricultural land fallow and about 95% of farming households subsistence or semi-subsistence. The binding constraints are not soil or skills but aggregation, cold chain, food-safety certification, labour lost to emigration and seasonal work abroad, disaster exposure and a land system that allows leases but never sales. This study sizes the import-substitution prize (around US$4 million to US$18 million a year at 5% to 20% displacement of an indicative US$88 million food import bill), sets out a phased hub-and-outgrower model, maps the legal route (Foreign Investment Act 2020, Cabinet-consented leases, the 2023 UAE-Tonga investment agreement) and explains where Gulf food-security capital fits: as catalytic grant, equity and co-financing alongside programmes already in the field, not as a sovereign lender and not as a staple-supply base for the Gulf.

36 : 1IMPORTS TO EXPORTS BY VALUE, Q1 2026 (T$190.8M VS T$5.3M)

29.9%FOOD SHARE OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, 2025 (WORLD BANK)

51%AGRICULTURAL LAND LYING FALLOW, 2015 NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL CENSUS

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Photo · Lucas Hemingway / Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-085Legal review

DIWAN · 11 OCT 2026

UAE Federal Regulatory Watch — The Enforcement Turn (Q4 2026)

AML rebuilt, permits enforced, mergers gated, quotas due: what changed in AE-FED and what operators must do before year-end

The UAE's federal rulebook has shifted from writing rules to enforcing them. This edition of the AE-FED regulatory watch covers four fronts that moved since our last issue: the wholesale AML rebuild under Federal Decree-Law No. 10 of 2025 (AED 100m fines, personal senior-management liability, a lower evidence bar, FATF evaluation year); the Advertiser Permit and SCA finfluencer regimes crossing into enforcement; the Competition Law's 2026 Executive Regulations making merger filing a suspensory stage-gate with a deemed-rejection default; and Emiratisation's 31 December 2026 checkpoint. With a dated 90-day radar and a five-move operator playbook.

AED 100mMAXIMUM CORPORATE AML FINE UNDER FDL 10/2025 (UP FROM AED 50M; SOME FINES UNCAPPED)

AED 300m / 40%MERGER FILING THRESHOLDS — UAE RELEVANT-MARKET TURNOVER OR COMBINED MARKET SHARE

AED 10,000FINE FOR POSTING PROMOTIONAL CONTENT WITHOUT AN NMA ADVERTISER PERMIT

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Photo · Ahmed Galal / Unsplash

CTY-AE-2026Country intelligence

FORFAIT · 28 SEPT 2026

United Arab Emirates: A Comprehensive Analysis for 2026

Evaluating Economic, Social, and Environmental Dynamics

The United Arab Emirates is expected to maintain a robust economic profile, with a projected GDP of USD 552.3 billion in 2024 and a real GDP growth rate of 4%. The population is forecasted to reach 11.5 million by 2025, driven by a growth rate of 4.7%. Additionally, the country will continue to exhibit high urbanisation and connectivity levels, supporting its status as a regional hub for trade and technology.

USD 552.3 billionGDP, CURRENT USD (2024)

4REAL GDP GROWTH (2024)

USD 50,274GDP PER CAPITA, CURRENT USD (2024)

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Photo · Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-044Legal review

LEX · 27 AUG 2026

Where the Gulf Settles Its Disputes — The Forum Edition

Second reading of the Ask-desk demand signal: the full map of GCC dispute forums in 2026 — courts, common-law enclaves and arbitral institutions — what each costs, how each enforces, and how to choose before you sign

The first reading of this demand signal mapped what readers of a GCC legal platform actually ask. This second reading builds out the cluster that was answered most thinly — dispute triage — into the study it deserves. In 2026 the Gulf runs three parallel dispute systems side by side: onshore civil-law courts, offshore common-law courts (DIFC, ADGM), and a maturing bench of arbitral institutions (DIAC, arbitrateAD, SCCA). The gap between choosing well and choosing badly no longer shows up at the hearing — it shows up at enforcement. This study maps the forums, prices the routes, tests the enforcement rails against nine years of annulment data, and closes with a drafting playbook: the decision framework and the five clause defects that still sink otherwise sound contracts.

AED 18.6bnDIFC COURTS TOTAL CLAIMS VALUE, 2025 (CASES +43% YOY)

182SCCA NEW FILINGS IN 2025, UP 63% YEAR-ON-YEAR

91.7%SAUDI ANNULMENT MOTIONS REJECTED, 2017–2025 (AWARDS SURVIVE)

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Photo · Roger Starnes Sr / Unsplash

CMD-DIWAN-001Feasibility

FORFAIT · 21 JUL 2026

The Gulf Data-Centre Race: Power, Chips and the New Digital Geography

Announced gigawatts, energized megawatts, and who actually captures the AI workloads

The Gulf has announced between 5 and 11 gigawatts of sovereign AI data-centre capacity while roughly 500 megawatts of third-party capacity is live today. This study benchmarks the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar against the two constrained incumbents — Singapore and Ireland — across capacity, power economics, latency position and regulation, and maps who captures which workloads to 2030.

5-11 GWSOVEREIGN AI CAMPUS CAPACITY ANNOUNCED ACROSS THE GCC

~500 MWGCC THIRD-PARTY DATA-CENTRE CAPACITY LIVE TODAY

~20%SHARE OF IRELAND'S METERED ELECTRICITY CONSUMED BY DATA CENTRES

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Photo · Jeffrey Eisen / Unsplash

CMD-DIWAN-010Masterplan

FORFAIT · 19 JUL 2026

Feeding the Gulf: The Food-Security Investment Map 2026–2030

Where sovereign capital is pulling private money — UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar benchmarked against the Netherlands and Israel, and the four-segment stack priced

Gulf food-security capital has moved upstream: over US$7 billion of verified sovereign and state-linked deals since 2020 now target the grain trade itself, while domestic production consolidates around what survives the desert P&L. This study benchmarks the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar against their two explicit reference systems — the Netherlands and Israel — then prices the four-segment investable stack: greenhouse-first controlled-environment agriculture, sovereign-anchored aquaculture, cash-yielding cold chain, and alternative proteins as a regulatory call option under Abu Dhabi's 2025 halal-integrated novel-food framework. It closes with the four co-investment structures that repeat across every disclosed transaction, and a candid risk register.

US$7bn+VERIFIED SOVEREIGN & STATE-LINKED AGRI-FOOD COMMITMENTS SINCE 2020

>90%SHARE OF UAE FOOD SUPPLY THAT IS IMPORTED

US$23.7BMEA COLD-CHAIN MARKET BY 2034 (FROM US$13.1B IN 2025)

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Photo · Nick Fewings / Unsplash

CMD-DIWAN-006Masterplan

FORFAIT · 18 JUL 2026

Sovereign AI in the Gulf: Compute, Models and Talent — Who Actually Leads

Announcement versus deployment across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar — benchmarked against Singapore and France

The Gulf sovereign-AI race has split into three distinct strategies: the UAE is deploying (a gigawatt-class campus physically under construction, chips export-licensed, a US$49bn infrastructure fund closed, and a continuous cadence of shipped models), Saudi Arabia is announcing at the largest scale (6.6GW by 2034) while execution is still early, and Qatar has pivoted to capital-as-strategy, buying exposure rather than building gigawatts. Benchmarked against Singapore and France, the UAE currently leads on execution score; the binding constraint for every programme is US chip-export approval, which has quietly become the real scoreboard.

200 MWFIRST GULF GIGAWATT-CLASS CAMPUS PHASE DUE ONLINE — STARGATE UAE, Q3 2026

6.6 GWHUMAIN ANNOUNCED COMPUTE TARGET BY 2034

US$49bnMGX FUND I CLOSED COMMITMENTS, JULY 2026

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Photo · Markus Winkler / Unsplash

EXT-GCC-LEGALTECH-01Feasibility

DIWAN · 15 JUL 2026

The Opinion Layer: GCC Legal Technology to 2026

Contract automation and Arabic legal AI are scaling fast, but a 40-plus-free-zone map and two common-law islands keep localization the hard problem

GCC legal technology is moving from pilots to working infrastructure across contract automation and Arabic-language legal AI, with government itself now a builder as well as a regulator. Funding is pre-seed-weighted against a single better-capitalised entrant, and jurisdictional fragmentation across 40-plus free zones plus the DIFC and ADGM common-law islands remains the region's defining localization cost, one that Singapore, the UK and the US do not face in the same form.

40+FREE ZONES PLUS TWO COMMON-LAW ISLANDS, DIFC AND ADGM, OPERATING INSIDE FEDERAL CIVIL-LAW SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GCC (SOURCE: DIFC COURTS; ADGM COURTS, 2026).

~$2MREPRESENTATIVE PRE-SEED ROUND SIZE FOR A GCC LEGAL-TECH ENTRANT, AS WITH QANOONI'S 2025 RAISE (SOURCE: MENABYTES, 2025).

~€17MESTIMATED CAPITAL RAISED BY THE BEST-CAPITALISED GCC LEGAL-TECH ENTRANT TO DATE (SOURCE: DIWAN ESTIMATE FROM HAQQ FIELD GUIDE AND MENABYTES/WAMDA FUNDING TRACKING, 2025-2026).

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Photo · Kurt z / Unsplash

EXT-GULF-COMMODITY-01Feasibility

DIWAN · 15 JUL 2026

The Paper Trade: Digitising Physical-Commodity Flows Through the Gulf

Electronic bills of lading, the MLETR statute race and whether Dubai can take documentation share from Geneva, Singapore and London

Gulf economies already route $1.6tn of merchandise trade, yet the documents that carry title, credit and jurisdiction still clear through incumbent hubs and English law. This study benchmarks Dubai against Geneva, Singapore and London on legal enablement, firm concentration and registry depth. It finds the window to capture documentation share open until roughly 2030 — contingent on one missing federal statute rather than on technology.

$1.6tnGCC MERCHANDISE FOREIGN TRADE IN 2024, THE REGIONAL PRIZE WHOSE DOCUMENTATION IS CONTESTABLE (SOURCE: GCC-STAT)

$2.5tnGLOBAL TRADE-FINANCE GAP AS OF THE LATEST SURVEY YEAR, UP FROM $1.7TN IN 2020 (SOURCE: ADB GLOBAL TRADE FINANCE GAP SURVEY, DECEMBER 2025)

26,000+DMCC MEMBER COMPANIES AT END-2025 AFTER 2,300 ADDITIONS IN THE YEAR, WITH TECHNOLOGY OVERTAKING COMMODITIES AS THE LARGEST SECTOR (SOURCE: DMCC 2025 RESULTS)

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Photo · Zlaťáky.cz / Unsplash

EXT-MENA-AIFDI-01Masterplan

DIWAN · 15 JUL 2026

The Silicon Sovereigns: How Gulf Capital Is Buying Its Way Into the AI Order

Compute, equity and chip diplomacy: an audit of what Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Doha are actually acquiring in the artificial-intelligence build-out

Between Microsoft's $1.5bn stake in G42 in April 2024 and the $49bn close of Abu Dhabi's MGX fund in July 2026, Gulf sovereign capital moved from the periphery of artificial intelligence to a load-bearing position in its financing. This study benchmarks the Gulf's sovereign AI vehicles against their Singaporean peers and finds that what the sovereigns are buying, in descending order of certainty, is compute, equity and influence — with access to American chips, not capital, as the binding constraint.

$49bnFINAL CLOSE OF MGX'S DEDICATED AI FUND, ANNOUNCED 1 JULY 2026 — THE LARGEST SINGLE AI-FOCUSED INVESTMENT VEHICLE ON RECORD (SOURCE: CNBC, BLOOMBERG)

5 GWPLANNED CAPACITY OF THE STARGATE UAE CAMPUS IN ABU DHABI, THE LARGEST AI COMPUTE CLUSTER ANNOUNCED OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES (SOURCE: OPENAI, G42, SOFTBANK, MAY 2025)

~70,000GB300-CLASS NVIDIA CHIPS COVERED BY THE FIRST-TRANCHE NOVEMBER 2025 US EXPORT AUTHORIZATIONS TO G42 AND HUMAIN; DIWAN AGGREGATION OF TRADE-PRESS TALLIES (SOURCE: US DEPT OF COMMERCE STATEMENT, 19 NOV 2025)

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Photo · Dayne Topkin / Unsplash

EXT-UAE-SME-01Customer research

DIWAN · 15 JUL 2026

Easy to Start, Hard to Keep Clean: The UAE SME Formation and Compliance Market

Formation venues compete on price and speed; the durable cost of owning a UAE company now sits in the tax-and-filing stack that follows

The UAE remains one of the cheapest and fastest places in the Gulf to incorporate, with entry licenses from roughly AED 6,000 and approval in days. Since corporate tax took effect in June 2023, however, the recurring compliance line — registration, bookkeeping, VAT and corporate tax filings — has become broadly venue-independent and often exceeds the annual license renewal itself. This study benchmarks five formation venues against Saudi and Bahraini references and sizes the services market that keeps the country's ~557,000 SMEs clean.

~557,000SMES OPERATING IN THE UAE AT END-2022 — THE INSTALLED BASE THE COMPLIANCE-SERVICES MARKET SERVES (SOURCE: UAE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, VIA WAM)

AED 375,000THE DOUBLE THRESHOLD: TAXABLE INCOME ABOVE IT ATTRACTS 9% CORPORATE TAX, AND TAXABLE SUPPLIES ABOVE IT FORCE VAT REGISTRATION (SOURCE: FEDERAL DECREE-LAW 47 OF 2022; FEDERAL DECREE-LAW 8 OF 2017)

AED 10,000ADMINISTRATIVE PENALTY FOR LATE CORPORATE TAX REGISTRATION, WAIVABLE UNDER THE FTA'S 2025 INITIATIVE FOR ENTITIES FILING WITHIN SEVEN MONTHS OF THEIR FIRST PERIOD END (SOURCE: CABINET DECISION 75 OF 2023 AS AMENDED; FEDERAL TAX AUTHORITY)

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