Studies & Intelligence

Large population without reliable power: Uganda

Uganda now has more generating capacity than it uses, yet about 23 million people still lack electricity and factories still run diesel. Where private capital fits: mini-grids, captive power in industrial zones, and network PPPs

Uganda's power problem has moved from generation to delivery. Installed capacity reached about 2,048 MW in 2024 against a 2025 system peak of about 1,351 MW, but 44.7% of people still lack access, losses run near 17% and manufacturers report frequent outages. The 2030 National Energy Compact targets 85% access, US$17.7 billion of investment (US$9.4 billion private) and 2,712 mini-grids from a base of about 45. This study compares three investable models: bundled mini-grid concessions for remote demand, captive solar-plus-storage for industrial zones (a price case for commercial and mid-size users, a reliability case for the largest), and PPPs in transmission and distribution rather than new bulk generation. All illustrative figures are labelled.

Road safety crisis: Tanzania

The official count records about 1,300 road deaths a year; WHO estimates over 10,000. Five moves that would cut deaths fastest — speed, passenger helmets, the first hour of care, safer roads and honest data — and who can pay for each

Tanzania's police recorded 1,275 road deaths in 2025, but WHO's model estimates about 10,052 a year, roughly seven for every death on the record. This study finds the quickest gains in speed management on the A7 and Dar es Salaam–Dodoma corridors, a fastened, certified helmet for every motorcycle passenger, a working emergency chain from crash to trauma unit, a 3-star minimum for roads, and a linked police-hospital death count. An illustrative five-year programme of US$230–390 million equals about 2–3% of the estimated yearly cost of crashes, and can be financed through a Road Fund ring-fence, development bank corridor loans, grants and carefully governed insurance and enforcement revenue.

Growing economy, low connectivity: Zimbabwe

The signal already reaches most Zimbabweans; the price of data, the power behind each site and the state's paper processes do not. Five moves that would unlock growth, and who can realistically pay for each

Zimbabwe's economy grew about 8% in 2025, yet only about 42% of people use the internet. Mobile coverage is not the main problem: LTE covers about 96% of the urban population and there are close to one mobile connection per person. The binding constraints are the price of data (Cable.co.uk ranks Zimbabwe the most expensive of 237 territories at US$43.75 per GB), unreliable power at sites and digital centres, and a government that still runs many licences and permits on paper. This study maps the gap, sets out five sequenced moves (cheaper data, power-resilient shared rural sites, satellite-backed digital centres, interoperable government rails, and local data-centre capacity) and identifies who funds each. Because Zimbabwe is still in arrears to international lenders, most money today comes from operators, the 1.5% Universal Service Fund levy, Chinese export credit and private infrastructure companies. An illustrative model shows rural shared sites only reach low-teens returns with roughly 40% public co-funding.

Blue economy: big catch, little investment: Papua New Guinea

The investable gap is the vessel-to-factory link: cold chain, raw-material finance and EU-grade traceability

Papua New Guinea lands record tuna catches and already leads Pacific processing, yet in 2023 only about 27% of the 290,365 tonnes unloaded at its ports was processed onshore. Its largest cannery closed that year because fish supply was unreliable, not because plant capacity was short. This study maps the value chain, sizes the gap and ranks entry plays. A cold-storage and raw-material supply service in Lae and Madang comes first, then brownfield value-adding and certification services, with ports and the state-led industrial zone treated as later options. It sets out the licensing, EU-access and foreign-exchange conditions a first mover must manage.

Powering Ethiopia's Last Mile

Where private capital can earn a return on electricity access in Ethiopia: captive industrial solar, anchor-load mini-grids and, later, utility-scale PPPs

Ethiopia has doubled generation to 9,752 MW, but only 44% of households reach Tier 1 supply and rural access is 56%. The tariff reform of 2024-28 has pushed the industrial tariff above the utility's own cost of service, which makes captive solar-plus-storage the first bankable entry. Mini-grids under the new NEP 3.0 are investable when they are tender-led and anchored on productive use. Utility-scale IPPs are the largest prize but should come last, until a private PPA reaches operation and currency convertibility improves.

Road Safety Crisis: DR Congo

What would cut road deaths fastest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and how it can be paid for

The DRC loses an estimated 15,000 to 40,000 people a year on its roads, while police record only a fraction (3,364 in 2021 against a WHO estimate of 15,615). Pedestrians are over half of recorded deaths, motorcycle taxis have become the main mode for most users with almost no helmets, licences or insurance, and there is no on-scene emergency care. This study sets out six levers in order of speed and cost: count the dead, protect pedestrians on urban arterials, a helmet-licence-insurance bundle for motorcycle taxis, heavy-vehicle safety on the RN1, lay first responders, and a modernised road code. A core five-year programme costs about US$50-95 million of public money (our planning estimate), roughly 4-8% of FONER's annual resources, with revenue-backed concessions and insurance levies able to carry the rest.

Arable land but import-dependent food: Tonga

Tonga imports roughly 36 times more than it exports, food makes up about 30% of its merchandise import bill, and half of its farmland lies fallow. The opening is a small, cyclone-hardened aggregation, cold-chain and processing hub on Tongatapu that turns surplus root crops, fish and horticulture into products that displace frozen imports, financed with grants and equity rather than new sovereign debt.

Tonga (population about 104,000) has fertile land, a farming culture in which most households grow food, and established export niches in root crops and kava. Yet its merchandise trade is profoundly lopsided: in the first quarter of 2026 the kingdom imported T$190.8 million of goods and exported T$5.3 million. Food accounts for about 29.9% of merchandise imports, imported fatty meats have been linked to some of the world's highest obesity rates, and the 2015 agricultural census found half of agricultural land fallow and about 95% of farming households subsistence or semi-subsistence. The binding constraints are not soil or skills but aggregation, cold chain, food-safety certification, labour lost to emigration and seasonal work abroad, disaster exposure and a land system that allows leases but never sales. This study sizes the import-substitution prize (around US$4 million to US$18 million a year at 5% to 20% displacement of an indicative US$88 million food import bill), sets out a phased hub-and-outgrower model, maps the legal route (Foreign Investment Act 2020, Cabinet-consented leases, the 2023 UAE-Tonga investment agreement) and explains where Gulf food-security capital fits: as catalytic grant, equity and co-financing alongside programmes already in the field, not as a sovereign lender and not as a staple-supply base for the Gulf.

Growing economy, low connectivity: Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan's headline growth runs well ahead of its digital rails: fewer than half of residents are online and mobile data costs roughly 26 to 31 times the price in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The unlock is international capacity, wholesale price reform and identity-and-payments rails, financed first by sovereign and Islamic development lenders.

Turkmenistan reports 6.3% GDP growth and carries public debt of about 3% of GDP, yet it ranks 233rd of 234 countries on the price of mobile data (US$9.28 per GB), 145th of 193 on the UN E-Government Development Index, and had a median fixed download speed of 3.6 Mbps at the start of 2025. Demand is not the constraint: internet users rose by 196,000 in the year to October 2025, to 46.1% of the population. The constraints are a single state-controlled carrier for most traffic, thin and poorly diversified international capacity, an official exchange rate far from the market rate, and heavy content filtering. The 2026-2028 State Programme for the Digital Economy creates a policy window. This study sets out which moves would unlock growth (Trans-Caspian and southern fibre routes, a wholesale open-access tariff, a national identity and payments layer, a government cloud) and who is realistically placed to fund them: the Islamic Development Bank (which has already lent US$273m for telecom networks), the Asian Development Bank, Gulf development funds, vendor and export-credit finance, and, for selected assets, public-private partnerships under the 2021 PPP law.

Blue economy: big catch, little investment: Bangladesh

Bangladesh lands 5 million tonnes of fish a year but exports under 1% of it. The investable gap is the cold chain and certification around its idle plants, not new factories.

Bangladesh is the world's second-largest inland-capture producer and fifth-largest aquaculture producer. It produced 5.02 Mt of fish in 2024, yet frozen exports in FY2024-25 were only 31,189 t (US$388.7m). Its 109 registered shrimp plants (~400 kt capacity) run at about 8% utilisation, starved of raw material. Post-harvest loss runs at 12.5–30%, shrimp yields are a tenth of regional peers, and fishing reaches only a third of the EEZ. The first-mover case is a landing-side cold-chain and certification platform at Chattogram or Cox's Bazar: partner with existing processors, sell into premium markets, and keep vannamei and offshore fishing as later options. EPZ terms (100% foreign ownership, 5–10-year tax holidays) and pending LDC-transition relief to 2029 frame the window.

Trade volume ahead of logistics quality: Ethiopia

Why the Indode rail-side dry port is the country’s most PPP-ready logistics bottleneck, and what it takes to make the investor case bankable

Ethiopia routes about 90–95% of its trade through Djibouti and pays an estimated US$1.5–2bn a year in port-related fees, with logistics costs above 20% of GDP. Of the five candidate bottlenecks (sea port, roads, railway terminals, dry ports and customs), the Indode intermodal rail terminal, dry port and logistics centre is the most PPP-ready: it is the only logistics asset in a formal DBFOM process (an expression-of-interest call in July 2025, with a reported 25–30-year concession), rail freight rose 78% to 3.2 Mt in 2025, and foreign ownership caps in multimodal transport and freight forwarding were removed in 2026. An illustrative US$75m first phase returns about 11% unlevered in US dollars, so bankability depends on a logistics-centre layer, dollar-indexed tariffs, anchor volumes and DFI debt whose repayments follow the ramp-up.

São Tomé and Príncipe 2026: First Reading

Economic, Social and Environmental Assessment

São Tomé and Príncipe has experienced a slow rise in GDP, with real growth hovering around 1% in recent years. Inflation remains elevated, exceeding 14% in 2024, while the population grows steadily at about 2% annually. Urbanisation continues at a modest pace, and energy access has improved to 78% of the population. Remittances represent a significant component of the economy, and the service sector dominates GDP composition.

Micronesia, Fed. Sts. 2026: Economic and Social Projections

A forward-looking analysis of Micronesia's economic landscape and demographic trends

The Federated States of Micronesia is projected to see its GDP reach USD 501.8 million by 2025, with a real GDP growth stabilising at 1.1% in 2025. The population is expected to grow modestly, reaching approximately 113,683 by 2025, with urbanisation remaining low at 22.5%. The reliance on imports continues to shape economic dynamics, while access to electricity and internet connectivity are improving.

Seychelles: Economic and Social Outlook for 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

As Seychelles approaches 2026, its high-income status is under scrutiny due to reliance on tourism and external flows. The population is projected to grow modestly, while economic indicators suggest a need for diversification. Inflation remains low, but external dependencies pose risks. This analysis examines the implications for investors and policymakers.

Marshall Islands Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends and Projections

The Marshall Islands, classified as an upper middle income country, faces a projected GDP growth of 3.3% in 2024, following a contraction in 2023. The population is anticipated to decline further, raising concerns about economic sustainability. Urbanisation remains high, with 78.7% of the population living in cities. Health expenditure is significant, reflecting ongoing challenges in healthcare access and quality.

Benin: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

An Analysis of Growth and Development Indicators

Benin's 2025 GDP of USD 24.6 billion is projected to continue rising, while the population of 14.8 million is expected to grow. The urban share of 53.4 % will expand, and unemployment is likely to remain at 1.6 %. Inflation is forecast to stay at 1.2 %. Exports account for 20 % of GDP, imports 24.7 %, health expenditure 3.3 % of GDP, manufacturing 10.1 %, agriculture 25.4 % and services 47.7 %.

Guinea-Bissau: Economic and Social Outlook for 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Guinea-Bissau is expected to experience moderate economic growth, with GDP projected to reach USD 2.5 billion by 2025. The population is anticipated to remain stable at 2.2 million, with urbanisation increasing. Key sectors such as agriculture and services will continue to play vital roles in the economy. However, challenges related to political stability and infrastructure persist.

Burkina Faso: 2026 Forward‑Looking Economic Study

Economic, Social and Environmental Outlook

Burkina Faso's economy remains low‑income but shows signs of gradual recovery. Real GDP growth is projected to rise from 3 % in 2023 to 5.3 % in 2025, while GDP per capita is expected to increase from USD 873 to USD 1,148. Population growth is steady at 2.2 %, and urbanisation is modest. Inflation is anticipated to fall to –0.6 % by 2025. Infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity access and digital connectivity, and regulatory uncertainties persist.

Zambia: Economic and Social Outlook for 2026

Zambia's economy is expected to maintain a real GDP growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, with inflation projected at 15% for 2024. The population is set to reach 21.9 million by 2025, growing steadily at 2.8% annually. Urbanisation trends indicate an increasing consumer base, though challenges such as high government debt and a current account deficit remain significant.

Burundi: Economic and Social Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Burundi's economy is projected to recover to a GDP of USD 3.4 billion in 2025, with a real GDP growth rate expected to reach 4.2%. Population growth continues at 2.4%, while inflation remains a concern at 34.1% in 2025. The country's urbanisation trend is gradually increasing, with urban population share rising to 25.7%. These factors will shape the investment landscape in the coming years.

Uganda: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

An analysis of Uganda's growth trajectory and socio-economic indicators

By 2026, Uganda's GDP is projected to reach USD 62.0 billion, reflecting a sustained growth trend. The population is anticipated to grow to approximately 51.4 million, with urbanisation increasing. However, challenges such as inflation and health expenditure may impact overall development. These dynamics present both opportunities and risks for investment.

Lao PDR: Economic Outlook 2026

A Forward-Looking Analysis of Growth and Challenges

The Lao PDR economy is expected to grow steadily, with a projected GDP of USD 18.3 billion in 2025. However, inflation remains a concern, projected at 7.7% for 2025. Population growth and urbanisation trends indicate rising demand for services, while technological connectivity is improving. The legal environment poses challenges for foreign investment, necessitating careful navigation.

Bhutan: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

This study examines Bhutan's projected economic and social indicators, highlighting anticipated growth in GDP, improvements in urbanisation, and technological advancements. With a focus on sustainable development, Bhutan's unique approach prioritises Gross National Happiness, influencing its market dynamics. Stakeholders should consider these factors when evaluating opportunities in this lower middle-income country.

Macao SAR, China: A Forward-Looking Economic Study for 2026

Macao SAR's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.7% in 2025, following a significant rebound in 2023. However, the region faces demographic challenges with a projected population decline of -0.2% in 2025. While the services sector remains dominant, the reliance on tourism and gaming presents risks to economic stability. Inflation is anticipated to remain low, supporting consumer spending.

Economic and Social Outlook for Naoero in 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Naoero's economic landscape is projected to improve gradually, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% in 2024 and an increase in GDP to USD 176.0 million by 2025. The population is expected to reach 12,025 by 2025, maintaining a fully urbanised status. Life expectancy is also anticipated to rise, reflecting advancements in healthcare. These trends suggest a stable environment for potential investment opportunities.

Powering 87 Million: The Investable Electricity Model for DR Congo

Metro-grids, mining baseload and the Zambia corridor — three proven entries into the world's largest unserved power market

Only 22.5% of DR Congo's 112.8 million people have electricity, yet 2023–2026 produced three bankable templates: MIGA-wrapped urban metro-grids (Nuru), cheaper-than-diesel captive solar-plus-storage for mining (Kamoa-Kakula's $522m complex), and the $300m, 550 MW Kalumbila–Kolwezi import corridor. This feasibility study maps the demand, the capital stacks that actually close, the 2026 reform calendar, and where the next five flagship deals will come from.

Road Safety Crisis: Burundi

What would cut road deaths fastest in the world's poorest country per capita — and who pays for it

Burundi loses an estimated 1,546 lives a year to road crashes while officially recording 592 — a 2.6× undercount that is itself the first problem to fix. This feasibility study sequences five interventions by speed-to-lives-saved (crash data, post-crash care, corridor engineering, maintenance-backed enforcement, legal quick wins) and matches them to financing that already exists: a committed US$120M World Bank IDA corridor project, a lawful levy on mandatory third-party motor insurance, and catalytic grant windows. Indicative cost: US$10–20M over five years against US$30–60M of annual economic loss.

Road safety crisis: Liberia

What would cut road deaths fastest — and how to pay for it

Liberia records 236 road deaths a year; the WHO estimates the true toll near 794 — among the world's worst rates — with two-thirds of victims pedestrians and the crash burden costing up to 7% of GDP. This feasibility study sequences the fastest path down: pass the validated revision of the 1972 Vehicle and Traffic Law (Liberia still has no helmet, seat-belt or child-restraint law), concentrate speed management and pedestrian engineering on the Montserrado corridor that carries 58% of crashes, buy down pen-pen motorcycle risk through riders' unions rather than bans, and strengthen the new 25-ambulance post-crash chain plus one honest national crash registry. Priced at $20–30m over five years, it is financeable today from the petroleum-levy National Road Fund, development-bank corridor projects, and global road-safety philanthropy — roughly 2% of what crashes already cost Liberia every year.

Road Safety Crisis: Zimbabwe

What would cut 2,000 annual road deaths fastest — and how to pay for it

Zimbabwe records about 2,000 road deaths a year (2,015 in 2024, across 52,288 crashes) at a WHO-estimated 41.2 deaths per 100,000 — nearly triple the global average — with crash costs officials put above US$400M a year. This feasibility study ranks the fastest evidence-based fixes: corridor speed enforcement, black-spot engineering, a permanent financed post-crash care network, and an empowered lead agency with public data — financed by the instruments government has already named for its proposed Road Accident Fund: a 35% share of third-party insurance, fuel levies and fines.

Road Safety Crisis: Dominican Republic

What would cut road deaths fastest — engineering, enforcement, post-crash care and data — and how to finance it

The Dominican Republic has carried one of the world's highest road-death rates for over a decade — WHO estimated 64.6 deaths per 100,000 people in 2019, and national counts hovered near 3,000 deaths a year through 2024. Motorcyclists are about 70% of the dead, and 85% of killed riders wore no helmet. In 2025 fatalities broke downward for the first time (−33%, to 1,994), and penalties under the new certified-helmet regime begin in May 2026 — a rare window where enforcement, engineering, post-crash care and data reform can compound. This study ranks the interventions by speed of life-saving impact and maps a financing stack — insurance surcharges, ring-fenced fines, MDB safe-mobility lines and performance-based road contracts — that does not depend on the annual budget cycle.

Market signal: Energy Commodities in GCC

Two signals from a 30-day read of Gulf energy flows: the crude rebound is riding on workarounds, and diesel is now the scarce barrel

Gulf crude exports have clawed back above pre-war levels through pipeline and shuttle workarounds, even as tanker attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz escalate — while refined products, above all diesel, remain structurally constrained, with Middle East diesel exports to Europe at a six-year low and European diesel prices at all-time records. Both signals reward the same positioning: outside-Hormuz loading, verified counterparties, and secured logistics.

Market Signal: The Winners' Market

Three signals from 13 September - 13 October 2026: a two-year unicorn, a barbell market funded from home, and Silicon Valley arriving at inception

GCC platform capital surged back in the window - $1.65B in Q3, up 108% - but to fewer hands, from closer by, and earlier: barq became MENA's largest-ever Series A ($329.5M at $1.85B) two years after launch with an Omani bank on the cap table; the Wamda and Magnitt prints confirmed a barbell (record $813M of mega-rounds over an early-stage base down 45%) with MENA investors at a three-year-high 58% of capital; and Ben Horowitz, Avra and East40 backed Riyadh's Echelon at inception. The study maps what each actor should do in 90 days.

Andorra 2026: Structural Stability in a High-Income Micro-State

A First Reading of Economic Resilience, Demographic Constraints, and Digital Infrastructure

Andorra presents a stable, high-income economy with a GDP of USD 4.5 billion in 2025 and real growth of 3.9%. The services sector dominates at 77.8% of GDP, supported by universal electricity access and 94.4% internet penetration. However, the market is constrained by a population of 82,904 and a high urban concentration of 88.9%, limiting local talent depth. With central government debt at 40% of GDP and a current account surplus of 16%, the fiscal position is sound, though the absence of legal instruments in the Forfait corpus requires careful verification before operational entry.

Vanuatu Economic and Social Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends and Projections

Vanuatu's economy is projected to grow steadily, reaching a GDP of USD 1.4 billion in 2025. Population growth is anticipated at 2.2% annually, with life expectancy increasing to 71.7 years in 2024. The economic environment remains challenging yet offers potential for growth, particularly in the agricultural and tourism sectors.

Guyana 2026 – Economic Outlook and Investment Implications

DIWAN First Reading

The country’s GDP rose to USD 27.1 bn in 2025, driven by a real growth rate of 19.3 % and fuel exports representing 75.9 % of merchandise exports. Internet penetration reached 83 % and unemployment hovered around 12 % in 2025. These dynamics suggest a high‑growth environment but one that remains dependent on oil‑related revenues and vulnerable to external price swings.

Paraguay 2026 First Reading

Economic, Social and Environmental Outlook

Paraguay's economy has grown steadily, with GDP reaching USD 49.3 billion in 2025 and real growth rates above 4 % in recent years. Inflation remains moderate, and the population is expanding at 1.2 % annually, supporting a growing labour market. Urbanisation is accelerating, with most residents living in cities by 2025. Energy access is near universal, and the country's legal framework encourages foreign investment, although judicial efficiency remains a concern.

Panama: Economic Outlook and Projections for 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

In 2026, Panama's economy is projected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with GDP expected to reach USD 90.5 billion. Population growth will contribute to an urban population share of 66.2%. The country is also anticipated to experience a low inflation rate and a gradual improvement in GDP per capita, reflecting ongoing economic stability.

Cyprus Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis for 2027-2029

Cyprus is projected to maintain a moderate economic growth trajectory, with real GDP growth stabilising around 3.9% in 2024. The population is expected to grow modestly, reaching approximately 1.4 million by 2025. Inflation rates are anticipated to remain low, contributing to overall economic stability. The services sector will continue to dominate the economy, highlighting opportunities for investment in this area.

Czechia Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Economic Indicators

Czechia's economic landscape is expected to show a gradual recovery, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Inflation rates are anticipated to remain moderate, while the population is expected to stabilise around 10.9 million. The urban population share will continue to influence economic activity, with strong reliance on exports. Overall, the outlook suggests a stable environment for investment opportunities.

Ukraine Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Economic Indicators

Ukraine's economy is expected to show resilience in the coming years, with GDP growth stabilising at 3.2% in 2024 and inflation projected at 6.5%. The population is anticipated to decline slightly, impacting market dynamics. Additionally, the urban population share remains high, facilitating access to services. Overall, the outlook suggests cautious optimism for investment opportunities.

Sierra Leone 2026 First Reading

Economic, social and investment outlook

The 2026 First Reading of Sierra Leone highlights a resilient macro‑economic backdrop characterised by steady real GDP growth and a growing population. However, high inflation, limited access to electricity and a modest digital footprint constrain investment potential. The country remains a low‑income economy with a trade deficit and modest foreign direct investment. While labour markets appear accommodative, structural constraints and governance challenges persist. The outlook suggests cautious engagement with a focus on infrastructure and inflation management.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: First Reading 2026

Economic and Social Projections

The Democratic Republic of the Congo faces a complex economic landscape marked by a projected GDP of USD 91.0 billion in 2025 and a steady population growth rate of 3.2%. Urbanisation trends indicate an increase in the urban population share to 45.1% by 2025. While the economy shows signs of recovery, challenges remain in skill development and infrastructure. The low-income status continues to shape investment opportunities.

Mauritius 2026 First Reading

Economic, social and environmental outlook

The 2026 First Reading outlines Mauritius’ economic trajectory, noting a projected GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024 and a steady real growth trend. Social metrics such as a 73.8‑year life expectancy, 94.3% adult literacy and 73.3% internet penetration remain robust. The country’s environmental profile shows stable CO2 emissions and universal electricity access, while the mixed legal system offers a predictable regulatory environment for investors.

Senegal Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive First Reading

Senegal's economy is expected to grow steadily, with GDP projected to reach USD 37.0 billion by 2025. The population is anticipated to grow to 18.9 million, with urbanisation trends indicating increased demand for services. Inflation is projected to remain low at 1.5% in 2025, supporting consumer purchasing power and investment attractiveness. However, challenges such as unemployment and reliance on imports remain significant.

Liberia Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends and Projections

Liberia's economic landscape is projected to evolve significantly by 2028, with GDP growth stabilising at 5% and an increasing urban population share. The country is expected to experience gradual improvements in living standards, although challenges such as inflation and infrastructure deficits remain. The demographic shift towards urbanisation suggests rising demand for services and investment opportunities in various sectors.

Bangladesh 2026: Economic, Social and Environmental Outlook

First Reading

Bangladesh is expected to maintain real GDP growth around 4% in the coming years, while inflation remains high and the current account deficit widens. The population continues to grow at 1.2% annually, with urbanisation increasing to over 33% of the total. Digital connectivity and electricity access are near universal, supporting service‑sector expansion. Environmental risks such as flooding and cyclones persist, demanding resilience investment. Overall, the economy presents opportunities but requires careful risk management.

Yemen, Republic: Economic and Structural Assessment 2026

A desk‑based first reading of macro‑economic and institutional indicators

Based on World Bank data, Yemen’s GDP fell from USD 43.2 billion in 2014 to USD 21.6 billion in 2018, reflecting a contraction driven by conflict and fiscal shocks. Population continues to grow at roughly 3 % per year, reaching 40.6 million in 2024, while urbanisation remains low and labour market weakness persists with modelled unemployment around 17 %. Access to electricity has improved to 86.3 % but digital connectivity stays limited, and external balances show persistent deficits and negative foreign‑direct‑investment flows.

Azerbaijan: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

A forward-looking analysis of Azerbaijan's economic landscape and social indicators

Azerbaijan's economic outlook for 2026 suggests a gradual recovery with a projected GDP of USD 75.9 billion and real GDP growth stabilising at 1.4%. The urban population share is anticipated to remain high at 58.6%, while inflation is expected to rise to 5.6%. Improvements in life expectancy and continued access to electricity are also notable social advancements.

What the Gulf Actually Asks: Incorporation, Directors' Duties and Exit Costs in the GCC

A demand-driven legal review answering the questions readers put to the platform most — mainland vs ADGM vs DIFC, what boards owe, and what employment exits cost

Reader demand on the platform clusters on three questions: where to incorporate in the GCC, what directors owe once incorporated, and what employment exits cost. This study answers all three — a six-door comparison of UAE mainland, ADGM, DIFC, Saudi Arabia, QFC and Bahrain/Oman; the ADGM directors'-duties framework in plain language; and the notice and end-of-service formulas for DIFC, ADGM and the UAE mainland — with indicative costs and a decision playbook by profile.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: A Forward-Looking Economic Study for 2026

Evaluating Future Economic Trends and Projections

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is expected to maintain a positive economic trajectory, with GDP growth stabilising and a slight population decline. The service sector will continue to dominate, while challenges such as unemployment and inflation will require careful monitoring. Digital connectivity is improving, supporting potential investment opportunities.

US Virgin Islands Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends and Projections

The US Virgin Islands, with a GDP of USD 4.7 billion in 2022, is expected to experience a continued population decline and economic volatility. Real GDP growth is forecasted to stabilise at around -1.3% in the near term, while unemployment remains elevated. Despite these challenges, the territory's high-income status and urbanised population present unique investment opportunities.

British Virgin Islands: A Forward-Looking Study for 2026

Demographic, Economic, and Environmental Projections

The British Virgin Islands, classified as a high-income economy, is projected to see a population of 39,732 by 2025, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Urbanisation is anticipated to increase to 57.4% of the population. Full electricity access and high mobile subscription rates support a mature technological environment. These factors shape the jurisdiction's economic landscape as it navigates external dependencies.

Greenland: Economic and Social Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Greenland's economic landscape is marked by high per capita income but limited growth prospects due to a stagnant population and reliance on external markets. With a GDP of USD 3.3 billion in 2023, the economy is expected to navigate modest growth rates. Key sectors include services, agriculture, and manufacturing, with implications for investment strategies and local engagement.

Saint Martin: A Comprehensive Analysis for 2026

Exploring Economic and Social Dynamics

Saint Martin, classified as a high-income territory, is experiencing a notable decline in population alongside a paradoxical rise in GDP per capita. The territory's economic recovery post-pandemic is tempered by ongoing demographic shifts, raising important questions for investors. With universal access to electricity and a fully urbanised population, the infrastructure is in place, yet the sustainability of economic growth remains uncertain.

Cabo Verde Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Cabo Verde's economy is expected to grow steadily, with GDP projected to reach USD 3.1 billion in 2025. The population is anticipated to stabilise at 527,326, with a significant urban population share. Digital connectivity is improving, with 74.7% of the population using the internet by 2024. These factors suggest a favourable environment for investment and economic development.

Cayman Islands Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Economic Trends

As the Cayman Islands navigates its economic landscape, projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 3.8% in 2024, with GDP expected to reach USD 7.8 billion. The high-income status of the jurisdiction, coupled with significant foreign direct investment inflows, suggests a resilient market environment. However, challenges such as current account deficits and reliance on imports remain pertinent.

Gibraltar: A First Reading for 2026

Assessing Future Prospects and Trends

Gibraltar's population is projected to reach 40,126 by 2025, reflecting a steady growth rate of approximately 2% per year. The territory's fully urbanised status and high-income classification indicate a concentrated consumer base. With universal access to electricity and robust digital infrastructure, Gibraltar presents a conducive environment for business and investment. However, potential risks such as economic downturns and regulatory changes must be monitored.

Isle of Man: Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Economic Trends

The Isle of Man's economy is projected to continue its recovery from recent downturns, with real GDP growth stabilising. The population is expected to remain stable, and urbanisation will support service-oriented industries. However, the reliance on services may expose the economy to external shocks, necessitating strategic investments and regulatory engagement.

Sint Maarten Economic and Social Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Sint Maarten, classified as a high-income economy, is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory with a real GDP growth rate of 3.0% in 2024. The population is anticipated to reach 43,923 by 2025, reflecting consistent growth patterns. Life expectancy is projected to increase, indicating improvements in health outcomes. The economy's reliance on the services sector, particularly tourism, underscores the importance of external factors in shaping future demand.

Saint Lucia: Economic Outlook 2026

A Forward-Looking Analysis

Saint Lucia's economy is projected to face a contraction in real GDP growth of -0.6% in 2025, following a recovery phase. Inflation is anticipated to stabilise at 2% in 2025, while foreign direct investment inflows are expected to remain robust at 7.3% of GDP. The country's population growth will continue at a modest rate, impacting labour supply and consumption patterns. Overall, the economic environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investment.

Saint Kitts and Nevis: Economic Outlook 2026

A Comprehensive Analysis of Future Trends

Saint Kitts and Nevis, classified as a high-income country, is projected to see its GDP reach USD 1.2 billion by 2025. The economy is anticipated to stabilise with a real GDP growth rate of 2.7% in 2025. Population growth is expected to remain modest, while the urban population share will slightly increase. The country will continue to face environmental challenges, but overall, the outlook remains positive.